Job growth slowed in the Chattanooga metro area in mid-2024 and has yet to rebound. The CRER’s forecasts for quarterly Chattanooga job growth through 2027 are provided by the blue bars in the middle figure. Job growth over the next five quarters is expected to be weak, primarily because of tepid growth at the national level. Elevated inflation, higher interest rates, and continuing tariff uncertainty should continue to hamper recovery in some sectors, including manufacturing.

The bottom figure shows the CRER forecasts by calendar years. Our main forecast is for a net increase of 1,100 jobs in 2026, mostly from the first half of the year. Our forecast of net job gains of 4,300 in Chattanooga in 2027 would mean a fourth straight year of below-normal job growth

Download the forecast.

The post 10/15/26: Fall 2026 Forecast for Chattanooga Job Growth appeared first on Center for Regional Economic Research.

A new white paper released by the CRER looks at trends in small business in Chattanooga since 1978. Small firms are much more numerous in Chattanooga than are medium and large firms, although their number has grown much more slowly. Between 1978 and 2023, the number of small firms grew by 27 percent whereas the number of medium and large firms grew by 82 percent.

There were nearly 36 thousand employees at small firms in Chattanooga in 2023, an increase of 32 percent since 1978, although growth has been flat since the mid-1990s. Employment at medium and large firms grew by 85 percent over the period, standing at nearly 208 thousand in 2023.

Findings of the paper include:

1. Small-firm employment in Chattanooga was hit very hard by the recession of 2008-09. The number of small-firm employees fell by 8 percent and still had not recovered fully by 2023.

2. Six of 19 industries account for 68 percent of small firms and 72 percent of small-firm employment in Chattanooga: Other services; Retail trade; Professional, scientific, and technical services; Construction; and Health care and social services.

3. Small firms are much less prominent in Chattanooga than in Tennessee or the United States. In 2023, 72.3 percent of Chattanooga’s firms were small, while corresponding numbers in Tennessee and the United States were 81.2 percent and 87.4 percent. The gap between Chattanooga and the United States has been growing over time.

4. In terms of employment, small firms have remained less prominent in Chattanooga than in the United States. In 2023, 14.6 percent of Chattanooga’s private employment was in small firms, compared to 16.7 percent of employment in the United States.5.

5. In contrast with the United States, small firms in Chattanooga have been increasing their average number of employees. In 2023, the average small firm in Chattanooga had 5.2 employees, whereas the average small firm in the United States had 4.6 employees.

Download the paper

The post 10/15/26: White Paper – Small Business Trends in Chattanooga appeared first on Center for Regional Economic Research.

A new CRER white paper by William Plank, a CRER Research Fellow and EPB Community Economist, explores recent trends in electricity affordability in Tennessee relative to similar states. Affordability is measured by the median household’s electricity burden, or the share of its annual income spent on electricity.

Despite relatively sharp increases in prices since 2020, the average electricity burden across the comparison states has fallen since 2010 because household incomes have been rising. Specifically, the average burden across comparison states fell from 3.4 percent in 2010 to 2.6 percent in 2024. The electricity burden for Tennessee fell by one percentage point over the period and the median Tennessee household spent 2.6 percent of its income on electricity in 2024. Using standard thresholds, about 17 percent of Tennessee households were either highly or severely burdened by their electricity spending.

Read the whole paper

The post 8/11/26: New White Paper on Electricity Affordability in Tennessee appeared first on Center for Regional Economic Research.

NewsChannel 9 covered changes in the EV market in Tennessee, particularly the impact that they will have on Chattanooga-based Volkswagen.

A new report says demand for electric vehicles (EVs) has dropped in Tennessee, but even as the sales numbers for a Volkswagen model made in Chattanooga dropped, another VW model saw an increase in sales.

CRER director and chief economist Howard Wall was asked what softer EV demand could mean for Chattanooga:

“Volkswagen is a really is a global company, and they’re retrenching internationally. Although I think locally everything is is going to be stable; it’s not going to be affected by that.”

Watch and read the story here.

The post 7/15/26: Is Tennessee’s EV Appetite Cooling? appeared first on Center for Regional Economic Research.

Download the forecast here.

The post 7/15/26: Latest Forecast for the Chattanooga Metro Economy appeared first on Center for Regional Economic Research.

CRER director and chief economist Howard Wall was among the Chattanooga Times Free Press’s notable quotables this week:

“You’re not moving to Tennessee to turn it into a liberal paradise. You’re leaving California to get a place that fits you more politically.”

– Howard Wall, author of a paper on migration into and out of the Chattanooga area, on why he believes many people are moving from California to the Tennessee.

The post 5/31/26: Notable Quotables in Chattanooga appeared first on Center for Regional Economic Research.

A Chattanooga Times editorial responded to the debate about the influx of Californians that was documented by a recent CRER white paper, “Where Y’all From? Chattanooga’s Domestic Migration, 2021-25“.

Much of this population growth can, in fact, be attributed to new residents moving here from states like California and Florida, according to a recent UTC study analyzing Chattanooga’s domestic migration from 2021 to 2025.

Confirming the popular hypothesis at least on its face, the largest share of out-of-state transplants in that time span — over 10,500 people — came from California.

Given the strain population growth puts on Chattanooga — whether it’s traffic congestion, overcrowded schools or a rise in housing costs — the blame is often placed upon opportunistic Californians seeking to cash in on low-cost property relative to skyrocketing land values out west.

Read the rest here.

The post 5/31/26: Transplant Californians Aren’t the Problem appeared first on Center for Regional Economic Research.

Local 3 News has a story about the most recent CRER white paper looking at domestic migration into and out of the Chattanooga metro region:

A new UTC study shows California leads all out-of-state origins for people moving to the Chattanooga area, reflecting a broader trend of migration to the Scenic City driven by affordability, quality of life and economic opportunity.

The report from the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga’s Center for Regional Economic Research found most newcomers to the Chattanooga area still come from elsewhere in Tennessee. But among people relocating from outside the state, California ranked first.

CRER director Howard Wall, who authored the study said he expected migration from large states but was surprised by how clearly California stood out.

“California is gigantic,” Wall said, noting the state’s population size contributes to the trend.

Wall said migration remains a key driver of economic growth in the Chattanooga area.

“You can’t have economic growth without more people moving in,” he said.

Read the story here.

The post 5/26/26: California Leads Out-of-State Migration to Chattanooga appeared first on Center for Regional Economic Research.

Local 3 News covered wage trends in Chattanooga and asked CRER director and chief economist Howard Wall about his work on the issue:

The average wage in the greater Chattanooga area is increasing, but families say their paychecks still aren’t keeping up with the rising costs of living.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the average pay in the Chattanooga region increased about 4% from May 2024 to May 2025, but it is still slightly lower than national averages.

Chief economist Howard Wall at the University of Tennessee in Chattanooga says the mean average wage in Chattanooga jumped to $28.21 per hour, equating to approximately $58,676 annually for an individual working 40 hours a week.

“The average weekly wage is about $1,200 in Chattanooga, but for the U.S., it’s a little closer to over $1,400,” Wall says. “That sounds like a big difference, but part of it is that the wages in the rest of the county are more skewed with more high-wage people, and the other part is that our cost of living is lower.”

Watch the whole story here.

The post 5/26/26: Chattanooga Region Wages Rise, Still Trails Nation appeared first on Center for Regional Economic Research.

An article in the Chattanooga Times Free Press looks at the findings of the latest CRER while paper on domestic migration:

Although many new Chattanooga residents still come from elsewhere in Tennessee, California has been the Scenic City’s largest out-of-state source of transplants over a five-year period.

A net total of nearly 6,500 Californians moved to the Chattanooga metropolitan statistical area between December 2020 and December 2025, according to a recent paper from the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga.

The paper’s author, CRER director and chief economist Howard Wall, said that

“We’re not really different from other places in receiving Californians,” Wall said. “It’s really a California story as much as a Chattanooga story of a gigantic state where people are leaving. They’re moving to the South and Texas.”

“You’re not moving to Tennessee to turn it into a liberal paradise,” he said. “You’re leaving California to get a place that fits you more politically. I don’t have numbers on that, but I think it’s actually pretty significant.”

Read the story here.

The post 5/26/26: California is Chattanooga’s Top Source of Out-of-State Migrants appeared first on Center for Regional Economic Research.