Dear Colleagues,
This summer, the Department of Mathematics is running an online Special Colloquium Lecture Series on mathematical analysis and applications in allied fields. This lecture series is presented in conjunction with UTC’s NSF-funded Math REU Site. The third lecture will be given next Tuesday, July 19th by Dr. Zoi Rapti, Professor of Mathematics at University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. I have included the details of Dr. Rapti’s lecture below. Undergraduate and graduate students who are interested in Mathematical Biology and Dynamical Systems are especially encouraged to attend.
Sincerely,
Roger Nichols
Speaker: Dr. Zoi Rapti (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)
Date: Tuesday, July 19, 2022
Time: 1:00 p.m.-2:00 p.m. (EDT)
Zoom link: https://tennessee.zoom.us/j/96791537119
Zoom password: 421254
Title: Backcasting the COVID-19 epidemic
Abstract: In this talk we will discuss the lack of quality in the reported COVID-19 epidemic data and describe how it can be addressed. Specifically, in the early phase of the epidemic, infections in most countries were largely underreported. As the epidemic progressed, the reported infection data became more trustworthy. On the other hand, fatality (and hospitalization) data are assumed to be accurate for the entire period studied. We use the Takens-Whitney delay embedding theorem and fatality (or hospitalization) data to learn the manifold of the dynamical system governing the dynamics of the epidemic. We then use Gaussian process regression to estimate the actual number of infections during the early phase of the epidemic when they were not accurate. All theorems and methods will be explained during the talk.