The CRER provides forecasts of quarterly nonfarm employment growth for the six-county Chattanooga MSA. Our new forecast is for net job gains of 3,200 for 2026 and 6,000 for 2027. These forecasts are a downgrade from our previous release in January, largely because of benchmark revisions that lowered estimates of recent job growth in the MSA.
The figure shows actual and forecast quarterly job growth. All but one quarter since mid-2024 has had job losses, led by weakness in manufacturing. Growth is forecast to be below normal through 2026 and return to normal in 2027. Note that forecasts are contingent on the national economy exhibit somewhat higher growth than in 2025. Tariffs and the disruption of oil and raw materials due to the conflict with Iran make recovery of the manufacturing sector more challenging.